cartif projects


Spanish Demographic Dynamics Assessment Model


Development of a simulation tool to support decision-making and the design of public policies aiming to achieve a balanced and sustainable demographic, socioeconomic and environmental development in areas affected by depopulation, capabe of counter the current reality of the demograhic imbalances in Spain. 

Through the development of simulation models, the tool will evaluate the long-term effects over time of public policies and private initiatives on local development indicators and on the attractiveness of the area to retain resident population and attract new migrants or potential investors. This will allow understanding the structural causes of depopulation and local development.

It is aimed at experts and advisors in private consultancies and public agencies and institutions providing policiy advice to governments. 


  • Analyze the structural causes of demographic and migratory dynamics for different geogrpahical areas of Spain by building computer simulation models. 
  • Research on developing user-oriented tools to project population scenarios in the selected geographical areas of Spain and their associated socioeconomic variables based on historical trend, policy measures and private initiatives adopted and the scenarios at the national level. 
  • To evaluate the methodology in 5 representative case studies in Spain. 


  • Compilation of multi-sectoral data and public policies and private initiatives for fixing population.
  • Development of combined attractiveness indicators for residents and investors. 
  • Development of a set of possible scenarios and of the local modelling structure. 
  • Aplication of the methodology in the case studies. 
  • Development of the final tool. 
  • Creation of the Advisory committee and collection of stakeholders advise and requirements. 

Expected Results

  • Data infrastructure.
  • Catalogue of public and private policies aiming at fixing population.
  • Combined indicators of attractiveness for residents/investors.
  • Local models in system dynamics and projections of the main demographic variables and local development indicators. 
  • Specific analysis in the case studies and policies recommendations to adopt the pursued local development objectives. 
  • Final tool for the simulation of policies.


Strategic lines in R&D, in public – private collaboration 2021

CARTIF Total Budget: 210,025.96 

CARTIF Grant: 210,025.96 €
Duration: 11/2021 – 10/2024

“The client receives funding from the Ministry of Science and Innovation with NextGeneration funds through the Statal Plan of Scientific, Technic and Innovation Research”

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Noelia Ferreras

Energy Division


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